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Schöne employment, or maybe not?

Germany lacks skilled workers

Well, you flip through the news, you talk with friends, you check the Bloomberg index... Overwhelmed are we surely these days. Buzz words like #inflation, #recession, #energy, #war etc. are flooding everywhere. But are we confused about many contradictory information?

Look, we heard the economy is turning downwards, as inflation (CPI & PPI) is shooting up. As we learned in the school, when economy shrinks, it implies deterioration of company profit. In such case, they usually do everything to cut the cost, minimise the Capex, reduce the headcount. Right? This is what professors told us as a golden spiral (to hell).

However, what we see these days are low unemployment rate, high personnel turnover, lack of skilled labor. (Bloomberg, 23 Sep 2022) In the beginning I thought it were a structural mismatch in location, industry, position... But slowly (yet surely) it gives me the feeling of a sudden peace before a huge storm, or a tsunami.

What the textbook says: inflation rises, the economy shrinks, profits fall, companies cut headcount. What we see in 2022: low unemployment, high turnover, a lack of skilled labour. The textbook InflationupEconomyshrinksProfitsfallHeadcountcut What we see in 2022 LowunemploymentHighturnoverLack ofskilled labour
Fig. 1 · The contradiction described in the text, September 2022.

This is going to change the landscape completely. I will share my thoughts with you in the coming days on following topics:

  • political and financial purpose of inflation control, learning from history
  • labor as a production element: counterbalance workers' union with AI and automation
  • what are Chinese entrepreneurs thinking today for their next move
  • commodity's bright future under ESG wave

Btw. I will visit Light + Building fair Johannes Möller next week in Frankfurt to meet many old friends. I would also like to share some voices from the industry. Sometimes, it's more bloody than you read on the newspaper (Bloomberg, 20 Sep 2022).

First published on 26 September 2022 on LinkedIn, on Tim Y. Chen’s profile. Read the original

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